Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAE9A8803250913847
Trousse Nacrée UV Sun Block – Soin Quotidien Protecteur Anti-Taches SPF Adapté à Tous Types de Peau
longtail
1P + 3P
SOLAIRES
Last 4 weeks demand
2
▼ 66.7% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
26
Σ Stock across 1 live offer (1P + 3P) · 2026-10-14
1P stock
26
≈ 9.8 weeks of cover · MARJANEMALL · 2026-10-14
Unit price
MAD 82
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-10-09
AAE9A8803250913847
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-10-05 · Total forecast: 186 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast (p50)
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Trousse Nacrée UV Sun Block – Soin Quotidien Protecteur Anti-Taches SPF Adapté à Tous Types de Peau · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 2 units, trending down -66.7% · on-hand 26 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (189 days of history, — units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.76 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 2 units · prev 4w = 6 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 1.0 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 10.5 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 35.8 units |
| Planning level (p75) — next 4 weeks the order-sizing basis; demand exceeds it ~1 week in 4 | 15.3 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 11.0 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 42.6 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 186.2 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 2.2 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 15.3K |