Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAE9A68104201114040-0001
ADILETTE SHOWER CBLACK/FTWWHT/CBLACK
longtail
1P
CHAUSSURES DE VILLE
Last 4 weeks demand
7
▼ 56.2% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
62
Σ Stock across 1 live offer (1P + 3P) · 2026-08-05
1P stock
62
≈ 22.8 weeks of cover · MARJANEMALL · 2026-08-05
Unit price
MAD 224
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-08-01
AAE9A68104201114040-0001
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-08-03 · Total forecast: 85 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
ADILETTE SHOWER CBLACK/FTWWHT/CBLACK · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 7 units, trending down -56.2% · on-hand 62 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (91 days of history, — units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.66 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 7 units · prev 4w = 16 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 2.7 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 11.6 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 45.1 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 5.0 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 21.1 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 85.5 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 2.2 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 19.2K |