Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAE9A64304201036857-0002
URBAN COURT CBLACK/CARBON/CBLACK
longtail
1P
BASKET - SPORTSWEAR
Last 4 weeks demand
3
▼ 25.0% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
2
Σ Stock across 1 live offer (1P + 3P) · 2026-10-02
1P stock
2
≈ 1.7 weeks of cover · MARJANEMALL · 2026-10-02
Unit price
MAD 358
avg of last 27 sells · latest 2026-09-28
AAE9A64304201036857-0002
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-09-28 · Total forecast: 101 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast (p50)
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
URBAN COURT CBLACK/CARBON/CBLACK · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 3 units, trending down -25.0% · on-hand 2 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (161 days of history, — units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.81 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 3 units · prev 4w = 4 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 0.1 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 0.6 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 20.6 units |
| Planning level (p75) — next 4 weeks the order-sizing basis; demand exceeds it ~1 week in 4 | 6.6 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 7.4 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 30.3 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 100.9 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 1.5 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 36.1K |