Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAE9A6301220229885
BOITE DE RANGEMENT LUMIRA 1,2 L HOBBY LIFE
longtail
1P + 3P
CONSERVATION DES ALIMENTS
Last 4 weeks demand
21
▼ 22.2% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
108
Σ Stock across 3 live offers (1P + 3P) · 2026-10-14
1P stock
29
≈ 12.1 weeks of cover · MARJANEMALL · 2026-10-14
Unit price
MAD 12
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-10-04
AAE9A6301220229885
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-10-05 · Total forecast: 215 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast (p50)
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
BOITE DE RANGEMENT LUMIRA 1,2 L HOBBY LIFE · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 21 units, trending down -22.2% · on-hand 29 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (189 days of history, — units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.98 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 21 units · prev 4w = 27 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 4.1 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 16.4 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 33.3 units |
| Planning level (p75) — next 4 weeks the order-sizing basis; demand exceeds it ~1 week in 4 | 28.3 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 16.4 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 66.2 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 214.8 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 4.6 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 2.5K |