Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAE9A5303240304564
MIXA CREME CICA REPARATION 10% UREE 400ML
hero
1P + 3P
CORPS ET VISAGE
Last 4 weeks demand
143
▲ 31.2% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
311
Σ Stock across 3 live offers (1P + 3P) · 2026-10-02
1P stock
149
≈ 3.2 weeks of cover · MARJANEMALL · 2026-10-02
Unit price
MAD 84
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-09-29
AAE9A5303240304564
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-09-28 · Total forecast: 2541 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast (p50)
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
MIXA CREME CICA REPARATION 10% UREE 400ML · in the hero cohort · last 4 weeks 143 units, trending up +31.2% · on-hand 149 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: hero (189 days of history, — units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.87 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 143 units · prev 4w = 109 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 3.4 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 17.6 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 778.9 units |
| Planning level (p75) — next 4 weeks the order-sizing basis; demand exceeds it ~1 week in 4 | 50.6 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 40.4 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 217.5 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 2541.5 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 42.5 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 212.7K |