Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAE9A5303240304564
MIXA CREME CICA REPARATION 10% UREE 400ML
midtail
1P + 3P
CORPS ET VISAGE
Last 4 weeks demand
250
▼ 47.1% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
229
Σ Stock across 2 live offers (1P + 3P) · 2026-08-05
1P stock
6
≈ 0.1 weeks of cover · MARJANEMALL · 2026-08-05
Unit price
MAD 97
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-08-02
AAE9A5303240304564
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-08-03 · Total forecast: 1014 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
MIXA CREME CICA REPARATION 10% UREE 400ML · in the midtail cohort · last 4 weeks 250 units, trending down -47.1% · on-hand 5 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: midtail (126 days of history, — units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.87 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 250 units · prev 4w = 473 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 66.4 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 226.0 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 670.0 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 84.7 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 316.9 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 1014.0 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 39.0 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 98.1K |