Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAE9A51401270428727
Saladier en porcelaine 23 cm – Motif Herbier Indigo
longtail
1P
SERVICE DE TABLE
Last 4 weeks demand
23
▲ 187.5% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
23
Σ Stock across 1 live offer (1P + 3P) · 2026-10-14
1P stock
23
≈ 10.3 weeks of cover · MARJANEMALL · 2026-10-14
Unit price
MAD 13
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-10-07
AAE9A51401270428727
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-10-05 · Total forecast: 208 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast (p50)
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Saladier en porcelaine 23 cm – Motif Herbier Indigo · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 23 units, trending up +187.5% · on-hand 27 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (210 days of history, — units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.93 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 23 units · prev 4w = 8 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 3.7 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 17.5 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 46.9 units |
| Planning level (p75) — next 4 weeks the order-sizing basis; demand exceeds it ~1 week in 4 | 21.9 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 16.3 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 51.8 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 207.8 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 0.8 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 2.6K |