Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAE9A50432110013454
NIVEA - Lot de deux Deo homme & femmes (Pearl & Beauty + Protect & Care) - 200ml
hero
1P
CORPS ET VISAGE
Last 4 weeks demand
14
▼ 86.7% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
28
Σ Stock across 1 live offer (1P + 3P) · 2026-08-05
1P stock
28
≈ 3.0 weeks of cover · MARJANEMALL · 2026-08-05
Unit price
MAD 35
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-08-02
AAE9A50432110013454
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-08-03 · Total forecast: 316 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
NIVEA - Lot de deux Deo homme & femmes (Pearl & Beauty + Protect & Care) - 200ml · in the hero cohort · last 4 weeks 14 units, trending down -86.7% · on-hand 28 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: hero (273 days of history, — units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 1.07 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 14 units · prev 4w = 105 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 7.6 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 33.0 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 129.4 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 14.7 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 67.3 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 315.6 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 5.4 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 10.9K |