Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAE9A50432110013454
NIVEA - Lot de deux Deo homme & femmes (Pearl & Beauty + Protect & Care) - 200ml
hero
1P
CORPS ET VISAGE
Last 4 weeks demand
4
▼ 60.0% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
13
Σ Stock across 1 live offer (1P + 3P) · 2026-10-02
1P stock
13
≈ 1.6 weeks of cover · MARJANEMALL · 2026-10-02
Unit price
MAD 49
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-09-19
AAE9A50432110013454
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-09-28 · Total forecast: 286 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast (p50)
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
NIVEA - Lot de deux Deo homme & femmes (Pearl & Beauty + Protect & Care) - 200ml · in the hero cohort · last 4 weeks 4 units, trending down -60.0% · on-hand 13 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: hero (322 days of history, — units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 1.16 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 4 units · prev 4w = 10 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 2.2 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 9.9 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 69.8 units |
| Planning level (p75) — next 4 weeks the order-sizing basis; demand exceeds it ~1 week in 4 | 18.8 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 12.9 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 79.1 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 286.2 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 5.7 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 14.1K |