Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAE9A4902130431195
Bol en Porcelaine Blanche à Rainures – Ø 12,5 cm
longtail
1P
SERVICE PETIT DEJEUNER
OUT OF STOCK
Last 4 weeks demand
24
▲ 242.9% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
4
Σ Stock across 1 live offer (1P + 3P)
1P stock
0
no 1P (MARJANEMALL) stock in the latest snapshot
Unit price
MAD 4
avg of last 8 sells · latest 2026-10-01
AAE9A4902130431195
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-10-05 · Total forecast: 81 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast (p50)
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Bol en Porcelaine Blanche à Rainures – Ø 12,5 cm · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 24 units, trending up +242.9% · on-hand 0 units (OUT OF STOCK)
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (84 days of history, — units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 1.11 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 24 units · prev 4w = 7 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 1.7 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 3.5 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 7.0 units |
| Planning level (p75) — next 4 weeks the order-sizing basis; demand exceeds it ~1 week in 4 | 9.4 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 10.2 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 28.8 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 81.5 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | — |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 337 |