Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAE9A44105220848249
AAE9A44105220848249
longtail
1P
CASQUE - MICROPHONE - DICTAPHONE
Last 4 weeks demand
12
▲ 71.4% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
25
Σ Stock across 1 live offer (1P + 3P) · 2026-10-02
1P stock
25
≈ 10.5 weeks of cover · MARJANEMALL · 2026-10-02
Unit price
MAD 210
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-09-28
AAE9A44105220848249
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-09-28 · Total forecast: 196 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast (p50)
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
AAE9A44105220848249 · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 12 units, trending up +71.4% · on-hand 25 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (119 days of history, — units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.45 — low
- Recent trend: last 4w = 12 units · prev 4w = 7 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 1.0 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 4.9 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 48.5 units |
| Planning level (p75) — next 4 weeks the order-sizing basis; demand exceeds it ~1 week in 4 | 12.3 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 11.3 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 51.1 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 195.7 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 2.3 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 41.1K |