Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAE9A4402130407781
Bol en Porcelaine Blanche Texturée – ø 12,5 cm
longtail
1P
SERVICE PETIT DEJEUNER
Last 4 weeks demand
6
▲ 500.0% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
31
Σ Stock across 1 live offer (1P + 3P) · 2026-10-14
1P stock
31
≈ 54.2 weeks of cover · MARJANEMALL · 2026-10-14
Unit price
MAD 5
avg of last 6 sells · latest 2026-10-02
AAE9A4402130407781
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-10-12 · Total forecast: 107 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast (p50)
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Bol en Porcelaine Blanche Texturée – ø 12,5 cm · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 6 units, trending up +500.0% · on-hand 31 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (189 days of history, — units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.60 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 6 units · prev 4w = 1 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 0.8 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 2.8 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 4.5 units |
| Planning level (p75) — next 4 weeks the order-sizing basis; demand exceeds it ~1 week in 4 | 8.0 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 9.7 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 39.2 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 106.6 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | — |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 546 |