Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAE9A44006021050379
AAE9A44006021050379
longtail
1P
SERVICE PETIT DEJEUNER
Last 4 weeks demand
1
▼ 66.7% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
7
Σ Stock across 1 live offer (1P + 3P) · 2026-11-03
1P stock
7
≈ 9.8 weeks of cover · MARJANEMALL · 2026-11-03
Unit price
MAD 12
avg of last 4 sells · latest 2026-10-21
AAE9A44006021050379
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-11-02 · Total forecast: 184 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast (p50)
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
AAE9A44006021050379 · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 1 units, trending down -66.7% · on-hand 7 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (42 days of history, — units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.69 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 1 units · prev 4w = 3 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 0.0 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 0.3 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 8.2 units |
| Planning level (p75) — next 4 weeks the order-sizing basis; demand exceeds it ~1 week in 4 | 6.5 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 7.7 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 61.0 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 184.0 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | — |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 2.2K |