Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAE9A4201161031880
Pack Cadeau Teddy 55 + Sky High – Coffret Combiné Premium
midtail
1P
MAQUILLAGE VISAGE - CORPS
Last 4 weeks demand
11
▲ 37.5% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
13
Σ Stock across 2 live offers
1P stock
5
≈ 1.4 weeks of cover · latest warehouse snapshot
Unit price
MAD 142
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-05-05
AAE9A4201161031880
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-22 · Total forecast: 115 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Pack Cadeau Teddy 55 + Sky High – Coffret Combiné Premium · in the midtail cohort · last 4 weeks 11 units, trending up +37.5% · on-hand 5 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: midtail (119 days of history, — units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.73 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 11 units · prev 4w = 8 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 2.1 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 10.5 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 32.9 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 6.0 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 33.9 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 115.3 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 2.5 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 16.4K |