Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAE9A40962110013512
NIVEA – Trousse PINKY – Labello Fruity Shine + Roll-On Pearl & Beauty + Shower Care Roses
hero
1P
CORPS ET VISAGE
Last 4 weeks demand
28
▼ 58.2% vs prev 4w
Year-over-year
—
not enough history (need 56+ weeks)
Current stock
97
≈ 7.9 weeks of cover
Unit price
MAD 73
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-05-07
AAE9A40962110013512
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-08 · Total forecast: 346 units.
Actual
Forecast p50 (expected)
Forecast p95 (upper bound)
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
NIVEA – Trousse PINKY – Labello Fruity Shine + Roll-On Pearl & Beauty + Shower Care Roses · in the hero cohort · last 4 weeks 28 units, trending down -58.2% · on-hand 97 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: hero (217 days of history, — units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.81 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 28 units · prev 4w = 67 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic (p50) — next week | 17.8 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 4 weeks | 64.2 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 3 months | 143.3 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next week | 26.4 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 139.5 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 346.0 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 11.0 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 25.2K |