Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAE9A40962110013512
NIVEA – Trousse PINKY – Labello Fruity Shine + Roll-On Pearl & Beauty + Shower Care Roses
hero
1P + 3P
CORPS ET VISAGE
Last 4 weeks demand
11
▼ 80.7% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
26
Σ Stock across 2 live offers (1P + 3P) · 2026-08-05
1P stock
25
≈ 2.1 weeks of cover · MARJANEMALL · 2026-08-05
Unit price
MAD 57
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-08-01
AAE9A40962110013512
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-08-03 · Total forecast: 287 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
NIVEA – Trousse PINKY – Labello Fruity Shine + Roll-On Pearl & Beauty + Shower Care Roses · in the hero cohort · last 4 weeks 11 units, trending down -80.7% · on-hand 29 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: hero (273 days of history, — units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.81 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 11 units · prev 4w = 57 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 7.1 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 31.2 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 131.7 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 11.2 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 58.9 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 286.6 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 5.9 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 16.3K |