Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAE9A4091400710015310
ADIDAS – LINEAR BACKPACK – Sac à Dos Sportif pour Adultes – 18.5L – Noir
longtail
1P
MAROQUINERIE
Last 4 weeks demand
23
▼ 32.4% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
7
Σ Stock across 1 live offer (1P + 3P) · 2026-10-02
1P stock
7
≈ 2.9 weeks of cover · MARJANEMALL · 2026-10-02
Unit price
MAD 157
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-09-27
AAE9A4091400710015310
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-09-28 · Total forecast: 276 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast (p50)
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
ADIDAS – LINEAR BACKPACK – Sac à Dos Sportif pour Adultes – 18.5L – Noir · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 23 units, trending down -32.4% · on-hand 7 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (329 days of history, 114 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.84 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 23 units · prev 4w = 34 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 1.9 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 5.7 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 75.6 units |
| Planning level (p75) — next 4 weeks the order-sizing basis; demand exceeds it ~1 week in 4 | 13.1 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 14.8 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 55.0 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 276.0 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 3.9 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 43.3K |