Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAE9A40532110015630
Labello Baume à Lèvres- Fruity Shine Fraise - 2x4.8g
longtail
1P
MAQUILLAGE VISAGE - CORPS
Last 4 weeks demand
14
▲ 366.7% vs prev 4w
Year-over-year
—
not enough history (need 56+ weeks)
Current stock
153
≈ 55.3 weeks of cover
Unit price
MAD 40
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-05-04
AAE9A40532110015630
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-22 · Total forecast: 130 units.
Actual
Forecast p50 (expected)
Forecast p95 (upper bound)
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Labello Baume à Lèvres- Fruity Shine Fraise - 2x4.8g · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 14 units, trending up +366.7% · on-hand 153 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (231 days of history, — units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.71 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 14 units · prev 4w = 3 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic (p50) — next week | 3.5 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 4 weeks | 15.2 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 3 months | 41.3 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next week | 10.2 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 42.2 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 130.4 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 3.2 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 5.2K |