Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAE9A3901210405103
Boîte de conservation alimentaire Lumira 0,6 L - Gris foncé
longtail
1P
CONSERVATION DES ALIMENTS
Last 4 weeks demand
10
▼ 23.1% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
35
Σ Stock across 1 live offer (1P + 3P) · 2026-10-14
1P stock
35
≈ 24.6 weeks of cover · MARJANEMALL · 2026-10-14
Unit price
MAD 10
avg of last 18 sells · latest 2026-09-30
AAE9A3901210405103
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-10-05 · Total forecast: 118 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast (p50)
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Boîte de conservation alimentaire Lumira 0,6 L - Gris foncé · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 10 units, trending down -23.1% · on-hand 35 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (175 days of history, — units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.92 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 10 units · prev 4w = 13 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 1.3 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 3.7 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 5.7 units |
| Planning level (p75) — next 4 weeks the order-sizing basis; demand exceeds it ~1 week in 4 | 8.2 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 9.1 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 35.5 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 118.0 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 2.5 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 1.2K |