Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAE9A19006300210065
AAE9A19006300210065
longtail
1P
LUMINAIRE D'INTERIEUR
Last 4 weeks demand
12
▼ 7.7% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
2
Σ Stock across 1 live offer (1P + 3P) · 2026-10-14
1P stock
2
≈ 0.9 weeks of cover · MARJANEMALL · 2026-10-14
Unit price
MAD 23
avg of last 27 sells · latest 2026-10-11
AAE9A19006300210065
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-10-12 · Total forecast: 193 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast (p50)
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
AAE9A19006300210065 · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 12 units, trending down -7.7% · on-hand 2 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (91 days of history, — units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.64 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 12 units · prev 4w = 13 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 3.4 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 16.3 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 45.2 units |
| Planning level (p75) — next 4 weeks the order-sizing basis; demand exceeds it ~1 week in 4 | 21.4 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 13.4 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 41.8 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 192.6 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | — |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 4.5K |