Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAE9A1503240316383
Mixa Crème Céramide Protection 400ml
hero
1P + 3P
CORPS ET VISAGE
Last 4 weeks demand
51
▲ 155.0% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
91
Σ Stock across 2 live offers (1P + 3P) · 2026-10-02
1P stock
53
≈ 6.0 weeks of cover · MARJANEMALL · 2026-10-02
Unit price
MAD 83
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-09-28
AAE9A1503240316383
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-09-28 · Total forecast: 533 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast (p50)
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Mixa Crème Céramide Protection 400ml · in the hero cohort · last 4 weeks 51 units, trending up +155.0% · on-hand 53 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: hero (189 days of history, — units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.59 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 51 units · prev 4w = 20 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 2.9 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 15.6 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 155.0 units |
| Planning level (p75) — next 4 weeks the order-sizing basis; demand exceeds it ~1 week in 4 | 45.4 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 19.9 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 132.1 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 533.4 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 13.3 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 44.2K |