Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAE9A1411111044238
OFFRE CAPILLAIRE : Sérum Hydra -Texturisant + Shampoing = TROUSSE BLANCHE
midtail
1P
CAPILLAIRE
Last 4 weeks demand
11
▼ 50.0% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
12
Σ Stock across 1 live offer (1P + 3P) · 2026-10-02
1P stock
12
≈ 1.9 weeks of cover · MARJANEMALL · 2026-10-02
Unit price
MAD 65
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-09-28
AAE9A1411111044238
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-09-28 · Total forecast: 140 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast (p50)
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
OFFRE CAPILLAIRE : Sérum Hydra -Texturisant + Shampoing = TROUSSE BLANCHE · in the midtail cohort · last 4 weeks 11 units, trending down -50.0% · on-hand 12 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: midtail (287 days of history, — units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 1.10 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 11 units · prev 4w = 22 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 1.7 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 6.6 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 29.4 units |
| Planning level (p75) — next 4 weeks the order-sizing basis; demand exceeds it ~1 week in 4 | 17.7 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 11.8 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 57.0 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 139.7 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 4.0 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 9.1K |