Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAE9A11301270428693
Saladier en porcelaine 23 cm – Motif Feuillage Printanier
longtail
1P + 3P
SERVICE DE TABLE
Last 4 weeks demand
14
▼ 6.7% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
44
Σ Stock across 2 live offers (1P + 3P) · 2026-10-02
1P stock
1
≈ 0.3 weeks of cover · MARJANEMALL · 2026-10-02
Unit price
MAD 15
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-09-28
AAE9A11301270428693
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-09-28 · Total forecast: 143 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast (p50)
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Saladier en porcelaine 23 cm – Motif Feuillage Printanier · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 14 units, trending down -6.7% · on-hand 1 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (238 days of history, — units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.97 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 14 units · prev 4w = 15 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 1.7 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 7.5 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 29.5 units |
| Planning level (p75) — next 4 weeks the order-sizing basis; demand exceeds it ~1 week in 4 | 16.7 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 14.2 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 61.6 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 143.0 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 0.7 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 2.2K |