Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAE9A1111260905071
MAYBELLINE NEW YORK – Sky High Mascara Volume Extrême + Vinyl Ink 45 Rouge à Lèvres Longue Tenue
longtail
1P
MAQUILLAGE VISAGE - CORPS
Last 4 weeks demand
1
▼ 75.0% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
33
Σ Stock across 1 live offer (1P + 3P) · 2026-06-30
1P stock
33
≈ 39.6 weeks of cover · MARJANEMALL · 2026-06-30
Unit price
MAD 133
avg of last 28 sells · latest 2026-04-27
AAE9A1111260905071
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-22 · Total forecast: 56 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
MAYBELLINE NEW YORK – Sky High Mascara Volume Extrême + Vinyl Ink 45 Rouge à Lèvres Longue Tenue · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 1 units, trending down -75.0% · on-hand 35 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (189 days of history, — units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.36 — low
- Recent trend: last 4w = 1 units · prev 4w = 4 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 1.4 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 4.7 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 17.9 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 4.4 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 17.8 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 56.5 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 1.4 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 7.5K |