Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAE9A1111111044708
OFFRE CAPILLAIRE : Huile Extraordinaire OIL JOJOBA + Shampoing 200 ML = TROUSSE BLANCHE
midtail
1P
CAPILLAIRE
Last 4 weeks demand
6
▼ 83.3% vs prev 4w
Year-over-year
—
not enough history (need 56+ weeks)
Current stock
29
≈ 4.9 weeks of cover
Unit price
MAD 114
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-05-06
AAE9A1111111044708
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-08 · Total forecast: 157 units.
Actual
Forecast p50 (expected)
Forecast p95 (upper bound)
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
OFFRE CAPILLAIRE : Huile Extraordinaire OIL JOJOBA + Shampoing 200 ML = TROUSSE BLANCHE · in the midtail cohort · last 4 weeks 6 units, trending down -83.3% · on-hand 29 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: midtail (189 days of history, — units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.70 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 6 units · prev 4w = 36 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic (p50) — next week | 5.7 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 4 weeks | 24.8 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 3 months | 60.1 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next week | 11.4 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 58.4 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 157.2 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 4.6 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 17.9K |