Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAE9A07007140157906
AAE9A07007140157906
longtail
1P
CORPS ET VISAGE
Last 4 weeks demand
5
▼ 44.4% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
1
Σ Stock across 1 live offer (1P + 3P) · 2026-10-14
1P stock
1
≈ 0.5 weeks of cover · MARJANEMALL · 2026-10-14
Unit price
MAD 82
avg of last 23 sells · latest 2026-10-08
AAE9A07007140157906
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-10-12 · Total forecast: 174 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast (p50)
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
AAE9A07007140157906 · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 5 units, trending down -44.4% · on-hand 2 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (77 days of history, — units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.52 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 5 units · prev 4w = 9 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 1.5 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 4.9 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 15.3 units |
| Planning level (p75) — next 4 weeks the order-sizing basis; demand exceeds it ~1 week in 4 | 10.9 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 11.4 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 43.3 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 174.0 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | — |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 14.3K |