Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAE9A04304201036888-0001
3S TR ESS CAP BLACK/WHITE
longtail
1P
ACCESSOIRE MODE
Last 4 weeks demand
5
▼ 44.4% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
14
Σ Stock across 1 live offer (1P + 3P) · 2026-08-05
1P stock
14
≈ 5.1 weeks of cover · MARJANEMALL · 2026-08-05
Unit price
MAD 167
avg of last 27 sells · latest 2026-07-23
AAE9A04304201036888-0001
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-08-03 · Total forecast: 0 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
3S TR ESS CAP BLACK/WHITE · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 5 units, trending down -44.4% · on-hand 14 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (84 days of history, — units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.60 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 5 units · prev 4w = 9 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | — units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | — units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | — units |
| Optimistic — next week | — units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | — units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | — units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | — |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | — |