Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AABNN52234
Mouchoirs blancs Lot 2x550 unités - DALAA
longtail
3P
PAPIERS
Last 4 weeks demand
11
▼ 35.3% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
65
Σ Stock across 1 live offer (1P + 3P) · 2026-10-14
1P stock
0
no 1P (MARJANEMALL) stock in the 2026-10-14 snapshot
Unit price
MAD 15
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-10-04
AABNN52234
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-10-05 · Total forecast: 119 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast (p50)
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Mouchoirs blancs Lot 2x550 unités - DALAA · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 11 units, trending down -35.3% · on-hand 200 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (350 days of history, 99 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.94 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 11 units · prev 4w = 17 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 3.8 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 13.2 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 29.2 units |
| Planning level (p75) — next 4 weeks the order-sizing basis; demand exceeds it ~1 week in 4 | 23.4 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 11.4 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 44.4 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 118.7 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 3.5 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 1.7K |