Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AABLT13750
Derma Roller Dermaroller micro-ai guilles en titane composé de 540 micro-ai guilles 1mm
longtail
3P
CAPILLAIRE
Last 4 weeks demand
9
▲ 50.0% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
5
Σ Stock across 1 live offer (1P + 3P) · 2026-10-14
1P stock
0
no 1P (MARJANEMALL) stock in the 2026-10-14 snapshot
Unit price
MAD 27
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-10-09
AABLT13750
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-10-05 · Total forecast: 63 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast (p50)
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Derma Roller Dermaroller micro-ai guilles en titane composé de 540 micro-ai guilles 1mm · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 9 units, trending up +50.0% · on-hand 5 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (371 days of history, 54 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.84 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 9 units · prev 4w = 6 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 1.8 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 6.8 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 13.4 units |
| Planning level (p75) — next 4 weeks the order-sizing basis; demand exceeds it ~1 week in 4 | 11.0 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 7.0 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 20.4 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 62.6 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 1.8 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 1.7K |