Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AABLH58424
Cafetière à piston - GENERIC - CTM-G600 - 600 ml - Verre - Compatible lave-vaisselle
longtail
1P + 3P
SERVICE PETIT DEJEUNER
Last 4 weeks demand
26
▲ 1200.0% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
23
Σ Stock across 3 live offers (1P + 3P) · 2026-10-14
1P stock
17
≈ 16.7 weeks of cover · MARJANEMALL · 2026-10-14
Unit price
MAD 43
avg of last 17 sells · latest 2026-10-11
AABLH58424
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-10-05 · Total forecast: 48 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast (p50)
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Cafetière à piston - GENERIC - CTM-G600 - 600 ml - Verre - Compatible lave-vaisselle · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 26 units, trending up +1200.0% · on-hand 17 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (329 days of history, 49 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 1.30 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 26 units · prev 4w = 2 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 0.1 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 0.1 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 0.3 units |
| Planning level (p75) — next 4 weeks the order-sizing basis; demand exceeds it ~1 week in 4 | 1.1 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 5.5 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 17.6 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 47.8 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | — |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 2.0K |