Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AABIT06477
Garnier Ultra doux Hair Silk smoothing Serum Rice Water 120ml
longtail
1P + 3P
CAPILLAIRE
Last 4 weeks demand
10
▼ 56.5% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
171
Σ Stock across 4 live offers (1P + 3P) · 2026-10-14
1P stock
128
≈ 50.3 weeks of cover · MARJANEMALL · 2026-10-14
Unit price
MAD 50
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-10-11
AABIT06477
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-10-05 · Total forecast: 152 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast (p50)
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Garnier Ultra doux Hair Silk smoothing Serum Rice Water 120ml · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 10 units, trending down -56.5% · on-hand 127 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (392 days of history, 135 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.83 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 10 units · prev 4w = 23 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 2.9 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 16.1 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 40.2 units |
| Planning level (p75) — next 4 weeks the order-sizing basis; demand exceeds it ~1 week in 4 | 20.9 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 14.4 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 48.3 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 152.5 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 2.4 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 7.7K |