Demand Forecast

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Garnier Ultra doux Hair Silk smoothing Serum Rice Water 120ml
SKU · AABIT06477

Garnier Ultra doux Hair Silk smoothing Serum Rice Water 120ml

longtail 1P CAPILLAIRE
Open on marjanemall.ma

Last 4 weeks demand

2
▼ 66.7% vs prev 4w

Year-over-year

—
not enough history (need 56+ weeks)

Current stock

45
≈ 18.3 weeks of cover

Unit price

MAD 62
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-05-06

AABIT06477

History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU. Cutoff: 2026-06-22 · Total forecast: 110 units.
Actual Forecast p50 (expected) Forecast p95 (upper bound)

Price history

Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?

Garnier Ultra doux Hair Silk smoothing Serum Rice Water 120ml · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 2 units, trending down -66.7% · on-hand 45 units

Signals the model saw

  • Cohort: longtail (280 days of history, — units sold over 52 weeks)
  • Volatility (CV): 0.89 — moderate
  • Recent trend: last 4w = 2 units · prev 4w = 6 units
  • Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
  • Calendar events firing in forecast window: none

Model output

Realistic (p50) — next week2.5 units
Realistic (p50) — next 4 weeks9.8 units
Realistic (p50) — next 3 months29.2 units
Optimistic (p95) — next week6.5 units
Optimistic (p95) — next 4 weeks (reorder target)30.4 units
Optimistic (p95) — next 3 months (quarterly PO target)109.6 units
Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline)2.2
Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months MAD 6.8K