Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AABIT06411
Garnier Fast Bright Vitamine C Water Gel 50ml
longtail
3P
CORPS ET VISAGE
Last 4 weeks demand
6
▼ 14.3% vs prev 4w
Year-over-year
—
not enough history (need 56+ weeks)
Current stock
45
≈ 17.8 weeks of cover
Unit price
MAD 54
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-05-06
AABIT06411
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-08 · Total forecast: 71 units.
Actual
Forecast p50 (expected)
Forecast p95 (upper bound)
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Garnier Fast Bright Vitamine C Water Gel 50ml · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 6 units, trending down -14.3% · on-hand 45 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (245 days of history, — units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.73 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 6 units · prev 4w = 7 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic (p50) — next week | 2.0 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 4 weeks | 8.6 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 3 months | 24.4 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next week | 5.4 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 23.7 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 71.0 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 1.9 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 3.8K |