Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AABIT06402
L'ORÉAL PARIS LUMI LE GLASS 620 HIGHLIGHTER STICK PINK BALET
longtail
1P + 3P
MAQUILLAGE VISAGE - CORPS
Last 4 weeks demand
3
▲ 50.0% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
17
Σ Stock across 2 live offers (1P + 3P) · 2026-10-14
1P stock
13
≈ 35.8 weeks of cover · MARJANEMALL · 2026-10-14
Unit price
MAD 111
avg of last 19 sells · latest 2026-10-04
AABIT06402
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-10-12 · Total forecast: 94 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast (p50)
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
L'ORÉAL PARIS LUMI LE GLASS 620 HIGHLIGHTER STICK PINK BALET · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 3 units, trending up +50.0% · on-hand 13 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (378 days of history, 18 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.53 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 3 units · prev 4w = 2 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 0.1 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 0.5 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 1.3 units |
| Planning level (p75) — next 4 weeks the order-sizing basis; demand exceeds it ~1 week in 4 | 5.9 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 8.4 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 34.2 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 93.9 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 1.1 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 10.4K |