Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AABHJ19602
Savon Noir - BIO PRO GREEN - Béldi Marocain - 100% Naturel - Exfoliant Doux - Purifiant
longtail
3P
HYGIENE BEBE
Last 4 weeks demand
8
▼ 61.9% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
138
Σ Stock across 1 live offer
1P stock
0
not in latest 1P warehouse snapshot
Unit price
MAD 10
avg of last 29 sells · latest 2026-05-07
AABHJ19602
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-22 · Total forecast: 166 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Savon Noir - BIO PRO GREEN - Béldi Marocain - 100% Naturel - Exfoliant Doux - Purifiant · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 8 units, trending down -61.9% · on-hand 138 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (182 days of history, — units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.81 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 8 units · prev 4w = 21 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 5.3 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 20.8 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 51.0 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 14.4 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 56.5 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 165.6 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 3.9 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 1.7K |