Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AABCX15853
Chauffe-cire en silicone multicolors + spatule en bois + wax cire multicolore
longtail
3P
BEAUTE - BIEN-ETRE
Last 4 weeks demand
10
▲ 11.1% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
935
Σ Stock across 1 live offer (1P + 3P) · 2026-08-05
1P stock
0
no 1P (MARJANEMALL) stock in the 2026-08-05 snapshot
Unit price
MAD 89
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-07-29
AABCX15853
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-08-03 · Total forecast: 76 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Chauffe-cire en silicone multicolors + spatule en bois + wax cire multicolore · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 10 units, trending up +11.1% · on-hand 935 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (343 days of history, 90 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.67 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 10 units · prev 4w = 9 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 2.8 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 11.8 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 41.5 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 4.6 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 20.7 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 76.0 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 2.1 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 6.8K |