Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AABCX15853
Chauffe-cire en silicone multicolors + spatule en bois + wax cire multicolore
longtail
3P
BEAUTE - BIEN-ETRE
Last 4 weeks demand
4
▼ 42.9% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
955
Σ Stock across 1 live offer
1P stock
0
not in latest 1P warehouse snapshot
Unit price
MAD 92
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-05-05
AABCX15853
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-22 · Total forecast: 82 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Chauffe-cire en silicone multicolors + spatule en bois + wax cire multicolore · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 4 units, trending down -42.9% · on-hand 955 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (301 days of history, — units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.70 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 4 units · prev 4w = 7 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 3.1 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 11.8 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 29.7 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 8.0 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 32.4 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 82.1 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 2.3 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 7.5K |