Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AABCQ28214
Stick déodorant - NIVEA - Pearl & Beauty - 50 ml - Hypoallergénique - Femme
longtail
1P + 3P
CORPS ET VISAGE
Last 4 weeks demand
4
▲ 33.3% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
117
Σ Stock across 4 live offers (1P + 3P) · 2026-08-05
1P stock
6
≈ 7.9 weeks of cover · MARJANEMALL · 2026-08-05
Unit price
MAD 31
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-08-02
AABCQ28214
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-08-03 · Total forecast: 50 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Stick déodorant - NIVEA - Pearl & Beauty - 50 ml - Hypoallergénique - Femme · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 4 units, trending up +33.3% · on-hand 6 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (364 days of history, 38 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.64 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 4 units · prev 4w = 3 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 1.5 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 6.4 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 23.7 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 2.6 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 12.3 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 50.1 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 1.1 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 1.5K |