Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AABCF84376
Huile Essentielle de Vanille Essence fragrance 100% naturelle 10ml
midtail
3P
PARAPHARMACIE LIBRE-SERVICE
Last 4 weeks demand
2
▼ 71.4% vs prev 4w
Year-over-year
—
not enough history (need 56+ weeks)
Current stock
195
≈ 64.4 weeks of cover
Unit price
MAD 25
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-05-07
AABCF84376
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-08 · Total forecast: 133 units.
Actual
Forecast p50 (expected)
Forecast p95 (upper bound)
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Huile Essentielle de Vanille Essence fragrance 100% naturelle 10ml · in the midtail cohort · last 4 weeks 2 units, trending down -71.4% · on-hand 195 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: midtail (245 days of history, — units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 1.06 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 2 units · prev 4w = 7 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic (p50) — next week | 2.0 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 4 weeks | 9.3 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 3 months | 32.4 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next week | 7.4 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 35.0 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 132.8 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 2.5 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 3.3K |