Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AABCA74718
Lot de 2 Mugs en Verre à Double Paroi – 475 ml
longtail
3P
SERVICE PETIT DEJEUNER
OUT OF STOCK
Last 4 weeks demand
11
▲ 37.5% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
12
Σ Stock across 2 live offers (1P + 3P) · 2026-10-14
1P stock
1
≈ 1.1 weeks of cover · MARJANEMALL · 2026-10-14
Unit price
MAD 53
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-10-10
AABCA74718
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-10-05 · Total forecast: 119 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast (p50)
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Lot de 2 Mugs en Verre à Double Paroi – 475 ml · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 11 units, trending up +37.5% · on-hand 0 units (OUT OF STOCK)
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (392 days of history, 46 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.70 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 11 units · prev 4w = 8 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 1.3 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 8.2 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 20.8 units |
| Planning level (p75) — next 4 weeks the order-sizing basis; demand exceeds it ~1 week in 4 | 10.4 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 8.7 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 30.6 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 118.8 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 1.9 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 6.3K |