Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AABCA74718
Lot de 2 Mugs en Verre à Double Paroi – 475 ml
longtail
1P + 3P
SERVICE PETIT DEJEUNER
Last 4 weeks demand
1
▼ 80.0% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
41
Σ Stock across 3 live offers (1P + 3P) · 2026-08-05
1P stock
22
≈ 36.1 weeks of cover · MARJANEMALL · 2026-08-05
Unit price
MAD 67
avg of last 22 sells · latest 2026-07-20
AABCA74718
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-08-03 · Total forecast: 69 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Lot de 2 Mugs en Verre à Double Paroi – 475 ml · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 1 units, trending down -80.0% · on-hand 25 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (315 days of history, 28 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.76 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 1 units · prev 4w = 5 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 1.8 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 7.8 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 29.6 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 4.0 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 18.1 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 69.4 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 1.3 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 4.6K |