Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AABCA02411
Bol en plastique - GENERIC - Paradis Exotique - 15 cm - Multicolore - Résistant et léger
longtail
1P
SERVICE PETIT DEJEUNER
Last 4 weeks demand
1
▼ 50.0% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
6
Σ Stock across 1 live offer (1P + 3P) · 2026-06-30
1P stock
6
≈ 10.1 weeks of cover · MARJANEMALL · 2026-06-30
Unit price
MAD 20
avg of last 18 sells · latest 2026-05-05
AABCA02411
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-22 · Total forecast: 41 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Bol en plastique - GENERIC - Paradis Exotique - 15 cm - Multicolore - Résistant et léger · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 1 units, trending down -50.0% · on-hand 6 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (217 days of history, — units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.45 — low
- Recent trend: last 4w = 1 units · prev 4w = 2 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 1.0 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 4.2 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 12.1 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 2.9 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 12.6 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 41.2 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 0.9 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 821 |