Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AABAL82347
Boîte mouchoirs, Distributeur lingettes, Distributeur de Mouchoirs Décoratif plastique, bambou
longtail
3P
OBJET DE DECORATION - BIBELOT
Last 4 weeks demand
29
▲ 222.2% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
1
Σ Stock across 1 live offer (1P + 3P) · 2026-10-14
1P stock
0
no 1P (MARJANEMALL) stock in the 2026-10-14 snapshot
Unit price
MAD 27
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-10-12
AABAL82347
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-10-05 · Total forecast: 115 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast (p50)
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Boîte mouchoirs, Distributeur lingettes, Distributeur de Mouchoirs Décoratif plastique, bambou · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 29 units, trending up +222.2% · on-hand 3 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (434 days of history, 51 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 1.03 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 29 units · prev 4w = 9 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 4.3 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 15.9 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 40.0 units |
| Planning level (p75) — next 4 weeks the order-sizing basis; demand exceeds it ~1 week in 4 | 20.9 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 14.4 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 38.0 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 115.4 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 2.4 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 3.2K |