Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAAZR85545
L’Oréal Paris Elseve – Coffret Capillaire Huile Extraordinaire – 100 ml Huile + 200 ml Shampooing + 125 ml Crème Oil Replacement
hero
3P
CAPILLAIRE
Last 4 weeks demand
1
▼ 66.7% vs prev 4w
Year-over-year
—
not enough history (need 56+ weeks)
Current stock
10
≈ 1.3 weeks of cover
Unit price
MAD 161
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-04-24
AAAZR85545
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-08 · Total forecast: 189 units.
Actual
Forecast p50 (expected)
Forecast p95 (upper bound)
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
L’Oréal Paris Elseve – Coffret Capillaire Huile Extraordinaire – 100 ml Huile + 200 ml Shampooing + 125 ml Crème Oil Replacement · in the hero cohort · last 4 weeks 1 units, trending down -66.7% · on-hand 10 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: hero (294 days of history, — units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 3.20 — high (lumpy)
- Recent trend: last 4w = 1 units · prev 4w = 3 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic (p50) — next week | 1.0 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 4 weeks | 5.6 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 3 months | 34.5 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next week | 5.3 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 38.5 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 189.0 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 2.6 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 30.4K |