Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAAYU35369-0002
Ballon de Football TOPSPORT FT5811 – 420-440g – Blanc & Orange
longtail
1P
FOOTBALL
Last 4 weeks demand
4
▼ 42.9% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
2
Σ Stock across 1 live offer (1P + 3P) · 2026-08-05
1P stock
2
≈ 1.7 weeks of cover · MARJANEMALL · 2026-08-05
Unit price
MAD 62
avg of last 20 sells · latest 2026-07-31
AAAYU35369-0002
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-08-03 · Total forecast: 59 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Ballon de Football TOPSPORT FT5811 – 420-440g – Blanc & Orange · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 4 units, trending down -42.9% · on-hand 3 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (126 days of history, — units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.56 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 4 units · prev 4w = 7 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 1.6 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 6.9 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 27.0 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 3.1 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 14.0 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 59.3 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 1.2 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 3.6K |