Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAAYJ50534
Lunch bag - GENERIC - Tropical - 24x18x13,5 cm - Intérieur isolant - Look tendance
longtail
1P
CONSERVATION DES ALIMENTS
Last 4 weeks demand
3
▼ 25.0% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
42
Σ Stock across 1 live offer (1P + 3P) · 2026-10-14
1P stock
42
≈ 39.7 weeks of cover · MARJANEMALL · 2026-10-14
Unit price
MAD 14
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-10-09
AAAYJ50534
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-10-05 · Total forecast: 160 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast (p50)
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Lunch bag - GENERIC - Tropical - 24x18x13,5 cm - Intérieur isolant - Look tendance · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 3 units, trending down -25.0% · on-hand 42 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (350 days of history, 54 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 1.49 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 3 units · prev 4w = 4 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 0.0 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 8.8 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 30.4 units |
| Planning level (p75) — next 4 weeks the order-sizing basis; demand exceeds it ~1 week in 4 | 9.7 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 7.4 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 41.1 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 160.2 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 3.2 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 2.2K |