Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAAWB28837
Signature - Eau de toilette pour les hommes - 75ml
longtail
3P
PARFUM
Last 4 weeks demand
1
▼ 83.3% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
14
Σ Stock across 1 live offer
1P stock
0
not in latest 1P warehouse snapshot
Unit price
MAD 138
avg of last 26 sells · latest 2026-05-04
AAAWB28837
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-22 · Total forecast: 51 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Signature - Eau de toilette pour les hommes - 75ml · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 1 units, trending down -83.3% · on-hand 14 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (245 days of history, 32 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.44 — low
- Recent trend: last 4w = 1 units · prev 4w = 6 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 1.0 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 4.0 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 13.6 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 2.9 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 13.0 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 51.4 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 1.1 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 7.1K |