Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAAVX34682
Écran Solaire - KALINE - Invisible Anti-Brillance - SPF50+ - Crème Hydratante Offerte - 50ml
longtail
1P + 3P
SOLAIRES
Last 4 weeks demand
1
▼ 85.7% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
2,062
Σ Stock across 8 live offers (1P + 3P) · 2026-10-02
1P stock
40
≈ 17.0 weeks of cover · MARJANEMALL · 2026-10-02
Unit price
MAD 87
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-09-22
AAAVX34682
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-09-28 · Total forecast: 87 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast (p50)
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Écran Solaire - KALINE - Invisible Anti-Brillance - SPF50+ - Crème Hydratante Offerte - 50ml · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 1 units, trending down -85.7% · on-hand 40 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (455 days of history, 136 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.74 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 1 units · prev 4w = 7 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 0.8 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 5.0 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 24.7 units |
| Planning level (p75) — next 4 weeks the order-sizing basis; demand exceeds it ~1 week in 4 | 11.7 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 6.5 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 36.1 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 86.6 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 1.9 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 7.5K |