Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAAVJ73749
La Roche-Posay Anthelios UV MUNE Crème Solaire Matifiante SPF50ml = Effaclar Gel Nettoyant 50ml Offert
midtail
3P
SOLAIRES
OUT OF STOCK
Last 4 weeks demand
31
▼ 61.7% vs prev 4w
Year-over-year
—
not enough history (need 56+ weeks)
Current stock
0
depleted
Unit price
MAD 144
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-05-07
AAAVJ73749
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-08 · Total forecast: 338 units.
Actual
Forecast p50 (expected)
Forecast p95 (upper bound)
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
La Roche-Posay Anthelios UV MUNE Crème Solaire Matifiante SPF50ml = Effaclar Gel Nettoyant 50ml Offert · in the midtail cohort · last 4 weeks 31 units, trending down -61.7% · on-hand 0 units (OUT OF STOCK)
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: midtail (350 days of history, 336 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 1.56 — high (lumpy)
- Recent trend: last 4w = 31 units · prev 4w = 81 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic (p50) — next week | 6.8 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 4 weeks | 31.7 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 3 months | 94.9 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next week | 25.1 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 126.8 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 338.5 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | — |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 48.6K |