Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAAVC13054
Kit de 18 pinceaux de maquillage - manche noir tube rose doré
longtail
3P
MAQUILLAGE VISAGE - CORPS
Last 4 weeks demand
4
▲ 100.0% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
4
Σ Stock across 1 live offer
1P stock
0
not in latest 1P warehouse snapshot
Unit price
MAD 165
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-05-04
AAAVC13054
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-22 · Total forecast: 58 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Kit de 18 pinceaux de maquillage - manche noir tube rose doré · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 4 units, trending up +100.0% · on-hand 4 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (336 days of history, 29 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.57 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 4 units · prev 4w = 2 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 1.7 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 6.4 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 17.4 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 4.3 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 17.2 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 57.7 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 1.3 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 9.5K |