Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAAUT40802
AAAUT40802
longtail
3P
LUMINAIRE D'INTERIEUR
Last 4 weeks demand
1
▼ 50.0% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
5
Σ Stock across 1 live offer (1P + 3P) · 2026-11-03
1P stock
0
no 1P (MARJANEMALL) stock in the 2026-11-03 snapshot
Unit price
MAD 147
avg of last 5 sells · latest 2026-10-13
AAAUT40802
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-11-02 · Total forecast: 86 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast (p50)
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
AAAUT40802 · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 1 units, trending down -50.0% · on-hand 5 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (63 days of history, 6 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.38 — low
- Recent trend: last 4w = 1 units · prev 4w = 2 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 0.0 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 0.0 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 4.6 units |
| Planning level (p75) — next 4 weeks the order-sizing basis; demand exceeds it ~1 week in 4 | 3.6 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 3.2 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 15.9 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 86.3 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | — |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 12.6K |