Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAAUL50969
LOT LIFTER GLOSS N°4 + LIFTER LINER N°4
longtail
3P
MAQUILLAGE VISAGE - CORPS
Last 4 weeks demand
0
≈ stable (0.0% vs prev 4w)
Year-over-year
—
not enough history (need 56+ weeks)
Current stock
38
≈ 30.8 weeks of cover
Unit price
MAD 119
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-04-19
AAAUL50969
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-08 · Total forecast: 104 units.
Actual
Forecast p50 (expected)
Forecast p95 (upper bound)
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
LOT LIFTER GLOSS N°4 + LIFTER LINER N°4 · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 0 units, stable demand · on-hand 38 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (294 days of history, — units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 1.09 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 0 units · prev 4w = 0 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic (p50) — next week | 1.0 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 4 weeks | 6.1 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 3 months | 23.8 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next week | 4.9 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 26.4 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 104.1 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 1.8 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 12.4K |