Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAAUD14161
6 Verres à Thé Coniques – 195 ml – Réf. TM002E
longtail
1P
SERVICE DE TABLE
Last 4 weeks demand
7
▼ 46.2% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
79
Σ Stock across 3 live offers
1P stock
71
≈ 72.5 weeks of cover · latest warehouse snapshot
Unit price
MAD 18
avg of last 21 sells · latest 2026-05-04
AAAUD14161
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-22 · Total forecast: 77 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
6 Verres à Thé Coniques – 195 ml – Réf. TM002E · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 7 units, trending down -46.2% · on-hand 71 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (350 days of history, 47 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.73 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 7 units · prev 4w = 13 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 2.2 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 8.2 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 26.4 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 7.1 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 25.9 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 76.7 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 2.0 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 1.4K |