Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAATV48993
Labello BAUME STICK LÈVRES CARING BEAUTY RED Intense Color Rouge 3en1 SPF30 4.8g
midtail
1P
MAQUILLAGE VISAGE - CORPS
Last 4 weeks demand
9
▼ 71.0% vs prev 4w
Year-over-year
—
not enough history (need 56+ weeks)
Current stock
6
≈ 1.2 weeks of cover
Unit price
MAD 31
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-05-07
AAATV48993
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-08 · Total forecast: 142 units.
Actual
Forecast p50 (expected)
Forecast p95 (upper bound)
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Labello BAUME STICK LÈVRES CARING BEAUTY RED Intense Color Rouge 3en1 SPF30 4.8g · in the midtail cohort · last 4 weeks 9 units, trending down -71.0% · on-hand 6 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: midtail (350 days of history, 264 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.88 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 9 units · prev 4w = 31 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic (p50) — next week | 3.2 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 4 weeks | 15.4 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 3 months | 42.1 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next week | 9.1 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 48.0 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 141.7 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 3.2 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 4.3K |