Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAATV46106
Baume à lèvres - LABELLO - Caring Beauty - Rose - 3-en-1 - SPF30 - 4.8g
longtail
1P + 3P
MAQUILLAGE VISAGE - CORPS
Last 4 weeks demand
7
▼ 61.1% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
103
Σ Stock across 5 live offers (1P + 3P) · 2026-08-05
1P stock
6
≈ 2.1 weeks of cover · MARJANEMALL · 2026-08-05
Unit price
MAD 26
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-08-02
AAATV46106
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-08-03 · Total forecast: 155 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Baume à lèvres - LABELLO - Caring Beauty - Rose - 3-en-1 - SPF30 - 4.8g · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 7 units, trending down -61.1% · on-hand 6 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (364 days of history, 148 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.80 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 7 units · prev 4w = 18 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 3.8 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 16.6 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 68.4 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 7.4 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 32.3 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 154.6 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 3.0 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 4.0K |