Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAATV46106
Baume à lèvres - LABELLO - Caring Beauty - Rose - 3-en-1 - SPF30 - 4.8g
longtail
1P + 3P
MAQUILLAGE VISAGE - CORPS
Last 4 weeks demand
5
▼ 44.4% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
119
Σ Stock across 5 live offers (1P + 3P) · 2026-10-02
1P stock
21
≈ 7.4 weeks of cover · MARJANEMALL · 2026-10-02
Unit price
MAD 26
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-09-27
AAATV46106
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-09-28 · Total forecast: 161 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast (p50)
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Baume à lèvres - LABELLO - Caring Beauty - Rose - 3-en-1 - SPF30 - 4.8g · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 5 units, trending down -44.4% · on-hand 21 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (420 days of history, 153 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.80 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 5 units · prev 4w = 9 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 0.9 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 5.6 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 56.6 units |
| Planning level (p75) — next 4 weeks the order-sizing basis; demand exceeds it ~1 week in 4 | 14.7 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 8.3 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 44.1 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 160.5 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 3.7 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 4.2K |