Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAATD85291
Pointe de stylo de rechange pour Apple Pencil, 1/2e génération
longtail
3P
ACCESSOIRE TELEPHONE
Last 4 weeks demand
8
▼ 27.3% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
2
Σ Stock across 1 live offer (1P + 3P) · 2026-10-14
1P stock
0
no 1P (MARJANEMALL) stock in the 2026-10-14 snapshot
Unit price
MAD 37
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-10-10
AAATD85291
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-10-05 · Total forecast: 56 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast (p50)
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Pointe de stylo de rechange pour Apple Pencil, 1/2e génération · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 8 units, trending down -27.3% · on-hand 3 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (413 days of history, 67 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.56 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 8 units · prev 4w = 11 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 1.0 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 2.5 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 3.5 units |
| Planning level (p75) — next 4 weeks the order-sizing basis; demand exceeds it ~1 week in 4 | 7.9 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 6.4 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 21.2 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 56.3 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 1.9 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 2.1K |